Early in Amazon’s life, Jeff Bezos hated the idea of advertising. In 2009, Bezos famously stated that “advertising is the price you pay for having an unremarkable product or service.” Despite his dismissal of ads, Amazon started selling ads through the Amazon Advertising Platform (AAP) in 2012. But it wasn’t until 2019 that Bezos admitted to changing his mind on ads. In Q4 2022, Amazon generated $11.6 billion in ad revenue. In Q1 2023, Amazon’s ad revenue was its fastest-growing segment (+21% Y/Y), surpassing even AWS (+16% Y/Y).
Sooner or later, it seems like every tech company becomes an advertising company. This year, Microsoft plans to double its advertising revenue to $20 billion. Meanwhile, Uber is rolling out full-length video ads that play in-app while users wait for rides. So, why is there a seemingly unavoidable push for tech companies to build out advertising in their platforms?
In 2021, Apple released iOS 14.5, and iPhone users were notified that they could opt out of being tracked for targeting across apps and websites through application tracking transparency (ATT). As many as 90% of users chose to opt out of tracking after the update. The resulting aftermath created an attribution problem for advertisers, where it has become more difficult to understand the effectiveness of advertisements.
For the last decade, Google and Meta have dominated digital advertising. However, the attribution problem that arose from iOS 14.5 has contributed to a new trend: brands are diversifying digital ad spend across multiple platforms to better understand the effectiveness of campaigns. Elijah Schneider, CEO of social marketing agency Modifly, noted that in 2019 and 2020, at least 80% of their client spend was on Facebook products. In 2021, client spending on Facebook products had dropped to 55%, with the remaining 45% on alternative social platforms including TikTok and Snapchat. Additionally, Schneider noted that clients are pushing for “serious ad dollar diversification.”
Headwinds like Apple’s ATT have forced more platforms to look for advertising alternatives, and more demand invites more supply. For example, look at companies like Instacart. Instacart, which is planning to go public any day now, generated $740 million in advertising revenue. That represented nearly 30% of its total revenue, despite being most well-known for grocery delivery.
Why is advertising such a powerful source of revenue? One reason could be that awareness is one of the most under-monetized resources that a large company has. Instacart has 10 million monthly active users (MAUs); TikTok has 1 billion MAUs; Snapchat has 750 million MAUs; Uber has 131 million MAUs. Those companies have already done the hard work to acquire those eyeballs; why wouldn’t they try to monetize them?
Important Disclosures
This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and Contrary LLC (Contrary LLC, together with its affiliates, “Contrary”) makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.
The information herein is based on Contrary beliefs, as well as certain assumptions regarding future events based on information available to Contrary on a formal and informal basis as of the date of this publication. The material may include projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations. Past performance of a company is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein will be realized. Actual experience may not reflect all of these opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary.
Contrary shall have no responsibility for: (i) determining that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein is suitable for any particular reader; (ii) monitoring whether any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein continues to be suitable for any reader; or (iii) tailoring any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein to any particular reader’s objectives, guidelines, or restrictions. Receipt of this material does not, by itself, imply that Contrary has an advisory agreement, oral or otherwise, with any reader.
Contrary is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The registration of Contrary in no way implies a certain level of skill or expertise or that the SEC has endorsed Contrary. Investment decisions for Contrary clients are made by Contrary. Please note that, although Contrary manages assets on behalf of Contrary clients, Contrary clients may take any position (whether positive or negative) with respect to the company described in this material. The information provided in this material does not represent any investment strategy that Contrary manages on behalf of, or recommends to, its clients.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, company or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this material, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security of the company discussed in this presentation.
Please see www.contrary.com/legal for additional important information.